{mosimage}Fencing.Net
member MHS Fencer takes a look at the Men’s Epee bracket and walks us through
how his predictions. Ian predicts a few upsets and wants to see how far
Kolobkov, 2002 World Champion, can go in this event.
In a tough field this year the Americans have been showing their mettle, earning World Cup medals at tough competitions and with Thompson making the top 8 at World Championships last year. Their performances, however, have been streaky, and while a good day would serve them well at these Olympics, it is more likely that they will suffer the same early defeats as the highly touted competitors in men’s saber.
These Olympics look to be the proving ground for Kolobkov, Boisse, and Zhao.
Boczko has a path to the four, but he’s likely to falter there. Kolobkov’s low seed gives him the potential to prove to the world that he’s still the best after missing last year’s world championships, but the top 4 seeds are all solid fencers. Look for a number of upsets in the end of the competition, as comparatively weaker fencers wound up in the top spots for qualification while some battle-hardened veterans didn’t make it to the top of the list. While the likes of Rota, Fischer, and Jeannet are favored going in, they most likely will not be the people we see on top of the podium at the end of the day.
There are no real predicted upsets or bouts of interest in the 1st round. Thinks start to get interesting in the 2nd round where the top 32 start to shape the field.
Round of 32 – Some of the matchups here get interesting – Look for a couple of upsets in this round that aren’t called depending on what kind of day each fencer is having. The most likely notable upset is Carillo Ayala v. Obry, but I still have to pick Obry’s experience over Carillo Ayala’s tenacity.
Bouts of interest:
17 MATTERN Cody USA vs. 16 KOVACS Ivan HUN
Prediction: Kovacs d. Mattern – This should be an interesting bout, but an unfortunate one for American fans. While Mattern has had strong results this past year, notably at the Vancouver World Cup where he came in 2nd, the stylistic match up favors Kovacs.
While Mattern uses his length and athleticism to great effect, Kovacs’ precision will make him a dangerous opponent. Mattern’s attacks and parries tend to expose his arm, and Kovacs has the point control to take advantage of it, as well as the smallest, smoothest feint-disengage I have ever seen. Additionally, Kovacs’ many years of experience will be in stark contrast to Mattern, who is marking his first Olympic appearance. Kovacs will have many tricks that he can pull on Mattern, who has difficulties when facing unorthodox strategies. Look for the bout to open up in Kovacs’ favor toward the end.
21 CARILLO AYALA Andres CUB vs. 12 OBRY Hugues FRA
Prediction: Obry d. Carillo Ayala – While this bout should be a solid opener by Obry, Carillo Ayala proved himself at the 2003 Havana World cup and has done okay since then.
As a high energy fencer Carillo Ayala is in a good place to be able to knock off the veteran Obry before he’s had a chance to get into it. While Carillo Ayala has the raw talent and speed to make this bout interesting, look for Obry to come out ahead in the end, although this is epee, so anything can happen.
15 THOMPSON Soren USA vs. 18 INOSTROZA Paris A. CHI
Prediction: Thompson d. Inostroza – While their seeds are close, Thompson is by far the better fencer in this pairing. The Chilean team was overrated in the run-up to Athens and while Inostroza is their best fencer, I would argue that Thompson is the best for the United States. The one risk in this bout is that Thompson may go in overconfident and have to dig himself out of a hole.
Other bouts:
1 FISCHER Marcel SUI
32 AMBALOF Georges GRE
Fischer d. Ambalof – A fencer of Ficher’s caliber shouldn’t have a problem with Ambalof, but if there’s a large home crowd, look for a tighter than expected bout.
9 FERNANDEZ Silvio VEN
24 XIE Yongjun CHN
Fernandez d. Xie – Without any direct knowledge of Xie, this is a hard bout to call. Fernandez is solid and if he can keep his distance he should be able to pull out the win.
13 LEE Sang Yup KOR
20 KHVOROST Maksym UKR
Lee d. Khvorost – Kovhorost is a strong fencer, but Lee’s bronze in Sydney is a stronger credential.
19 STRIGEL Daniel GER
14 IMRE Geza HUN
Imre d. Strigel – Even though the Germans managed to qualify a team, the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. Look for a close bout in Imre’s favor.
11 SCHMID Sven GER
22 FIEDLER Joerg GER
Schmid d. Fielder – When teammates meet, especially in the Olympics, all bets are off. Schmid’s higher ranking should indicate the better fencer and victor, but you can never discount a teammate who knows how you fence and how to fence you.
23 ROBINSON Seamus AUS
10 KOLOBKOV Pavel RUS
Kolobkov d. Robinson – Robinson has pulled some upsets in his time, but Kolobkov knows what it takes to win the Olympics. He may have a lower seed than expected, but remember that Kolobkov missed the 2003 World Championships due to Air France’s foul up.
Round of 16 – Bouts start to get tough to call in this round, with so much depending on the day each fencer is having. All of the bouts should be interesting – there are no “weak” fencers left by this point – it really starts to be a question of stylistic matchups, although there are some fencers who are stronger.
1 FISCHER Marcel SUI
16 KOVACS Ivan HUN
Fischer d. Kovacs – Kovacs is strong and precise, but Fischer is faster and more agile. The speed and added mobility should prove to be Kovacs’ undoing.
9 FERNANDEZ Silvio VEN
8 ZHAO Gang CHN
Zhao d. Fernandez – Fernandez is a tough fencer, capable of staging a comeback, but based on word-of-mouth I have to pick Zhao who will have the added benefit of Xie’s experience against Fernandez.
5 BOISSE Eric FRA
12 OBRY Hugues FRA
Boisse d. Obry – Again, when teammates battle, all bets are off. You have to believe that Obry wants to win, or at least repeat his Sydney performance, but Boisse has shown himself to be better this season.
13 LEE Sang Yup KOR
4 JEANNET Fabrice FRA
Jeannet d. Lee – While Lee won the bronze in Sydney, Jeannet is an extremely strong fencer whose reach and timing should be able to counter anything that Lee throws at him.
3 MARIK Christoph AUT
14 IMRE Geza HUN
Marik d. Imre – Marik is the stronger fencer here, but he has made some early exits in other competitions. This wouldn’t be an early exit, but there’s always the possibility that he’ll give in early. I have to go with his speed and fleche here though, as well as the best flick defense I’ve ever encountered.
11 SCHMID Sven GER
6 BOCZKO Gabor HUN
Bockzko d. Schmid – Perhaps this is a bias against the Germans, but I’ve never been impressed by any of their fencing. Boczko is strong all around and his flick should power him through Schmid and into the 8.
7 KELSEY Weston USA
10 KOLOBKOV Pavel RUS
Kolobkov d. Kelsey – Kelsey will be upset by Kolobkov. There’s a sentence I don’t think anybody expected to hear a year ago – how could Kelsey outrank Kolobkov? Kelsey has had some good results, but this is his first Olympics, while Kolobkov is a grizzled veteran. Look for Kelsey to over commit on his attacks and for Kolobkov to pick up on it.
15 THOMPSON Soren USA
2 ROTA Alfredo
Rota d. Thompson – Thompson will make his exit following Kelsey. While Thompson is an all-around strong fencer, so is Rota. Rota should be able to generally outclass Thompson and set up an interesting match up in the round of 8.
Round of 8: With only one upset into the round of 8 predicted, you have to believe that this table won’t pan out exactly. Again, every bout here is interesting and it really depends on who has the greater will at the time of competition.
1 FISCHER Marcel SUI
8 ZHAO Gang CHN
Zhao d. Fischer – I just can’t believe that Fischer really has what it takes to make the top 4. Yes, he is a very good fencer, but there’s nothing special about him that puts him on top.
5 BOISSE Eric FRA
4 JEANNET Fabrice FRA
Boisse d. Jennet – Another teammate bout, another caveat – with two teammates seeded so closely, both of whom are so strong, it’s really just a flip of the coin that decides who wins that day. Look for this bout to either be over with quickly or take a long time – and my money’s on the latter.
3 MARIK Christoph AUT
6 BOCZKO Gabor HUN
Boczko d. Marik – While Marik’s flick defense is great, Boczko’s flick can outdo it if he uses it carefully. Marik has a strong fleche that should work well against Boczko though. This, like all of the quarterfinal bouts will be a nail biter to the end. I have to go with Boczko because Marik can be kept at a distance, and Boczko’s good at doing that.
10 KOLOBKOV Pavel RUS
2 ROTA Alfredo
Kolobkov d. Rota – Kolobkov is itching to prove that he is the world’s best. While Rota has done incredibly well this season, Kolobkov is always a power to be reckoned with. I have to go with the defending gold medalist to make the four.
Semifinals:
Kolobkov d. Boczko – Boczko’s relative inexperience should come through here – look for some trick’s by Kolobkov to pull the “upset” over Boczko. Kolobkov is an institution, and Boczko may be one day, but he’s not there yet.
Boisse d. Zhao – If Boisse can knock off two of his teammates, then he can defeat Zhao. All Boisse has to do is get to this point and he will be “cruising.” It’s a matter of will at this point, and when you have the will to beat both your teammates (both superb fencers on their own) then you have what it takes to win the gold.
Gold:
Boisse d. Kolobkov – Again, if Boisse has gotten this far, he can take it all. Kolobkov is solid and experienced, but he’s not all the fencer he was in Sydney.
Bronze:
Zhao d. Boczko
While Boczko can be tenacious, I have to go with Zhao. Maybe it’s overestimating the unknown, but Boczko’s not the all around fencer he could be, and I think Zhao will beat him out to make the podium.