Given the tremendous placement of Soren Thompson (Men’s Epee Individual 7th), and the galactic results of Mariel Zagunis (first Women’s Sabre Gold) and Sada Jacobson (first Women’s Sabre Bronze), it may be difficult to remember that there is still more fencing to come.
This is a short bracket analysis of Women’s Individual Foil, where the USA has a strong contender in play, Erin Smart.
American prospects
The USA has one fencer in the Women’s Individual Foil competition, Erin Smart. Erin Smart started fencing at 13 with Aladar Kogler and is a frequent foil team member (5th-place 2002 Lisbon, Portugal World Championships Foil Team; a member of the 3rd place 2001 Nimes, France World Championships Foil Team, alternate to the 2000 Olympic Women’s Foil Team). However, she’s also a strong solo competitor with individual international results, and three-time USA national champion (1988, 2002, and 2004).
Erin faces Mariana Gonzales VEN, who she already beat for first place at the 2004 Buenos Aires World Cup. Erin is at her second Olympics, and this time she’s fencing for herself — look for her to beat Gonzales again, and then look for her bout against Valentina Vezzali ITA (2nd seed).
Italy has fielded a team of epic depth and strength, and Vezzali is one of their strongest fencers. Though it will be a hard fight, Erin can beat Vezzali by generally being patient, and using distance to invite the Italian into counter-attacking. Erin showed she can beat world-class attackers when she finaled against Ann Marsh (one-time 5th in the world!) in the 2004 Olympic Qualifiers. Vezzali, however, has a knack for making her opponents miss. It’s not that Vezzali touches her opponents more, it’s that she is hit less. Erin will need to put her point on-target reliably, and pay strict attention to her preparations on attack — Vezzali loves tempo.
Overall
{mosimage}The pressure is on! Sylwia Gruchala (a crowd favorite) is Poland’s sole representative in Women’s Individual Foil, and a strong medal contender. With half of Olympic fencing completed, Poland’s medal hopes rest on her shoulders. Despite a knee injury which kept her out of competition for six months, she has racked up an impressive record in 2004.
Jie Meng CHN is also fencing solo, and the eyes of China will focus narrowly on her. Tan Xue’s Silver-medal finish in Women’s Individual Sabre takes off some of the pressure, however.
As with Men’s Foil, the Italians once again have top seeds climbing opposite sides of the bracket. Vezzali may have to eliminate teammate Margherita Granbassi ITA, a veteran of the 2002-2004 World Championship Teams but with only one notable individual result in 2004, 3rd place St Petersburg.
The closest competition for Giovanna Trillini ITA, comes from the six-inch-taller, wildly experienced Svetlana Boiko RUS (sometimes “Bojko”). Boiko will probably take out Gabriella Varga HUN in the round of 16, and then make a supreme effort to upset Trillini and stay in the running. The fencing in this Olympic Games has been characterized by upsets, so no fencer should feel too assured of victory. Trillini will be taking Boiko very seriously.
Bouts to watch
Aida Mohamed HUN vs Ekaterina Youcheva RUS. Mohamed has a bye into the 16, where she will probably face Youcheva in a tough bout. Mohamed has a higher seed, a host of top-three individual world results, and a hunger to improve her 2000 Sydney Olympics 7th place finish. However, Youcheva has a long career and an endless supply of experience. At thirty-one years of age, Youcheva may feel like it’s her time to turn it on.
If Mohamed breaks into the top 8, she’ll probably be facing Roxana Scarlat ROM. Scarlat, according to the Olympics website, has five third-place finishes and one second-place finish in the 2004 World Cup series, so she is undoubtedly hungry for a definitive win. (However, Mohamed has six 3rd-place results in 2004, so she might be more Hungary). These two undoubtedly know each other well, and it will be a fierce conflict when they meet on strip.
Semi-Finals
We expect to see Giovana Trillini ITA versus Aida Mohamed HUN. In terms of time spent, and consistency of fencing, a big win for Mohamed is long overdue. There is not much of a skill gap, but whether Mohamed can close the performance gap remains to be seen.
The big story is, of course, Sylwia Gruchala POL versus Valentina Vezzali ITA. Barring an upset, these two will meet in the semi-finals, the continuation of a years-long grudge match between them. Vezzali is the most winning woman fencer in history, but Gruchala has beaten her in the past. Vezzali plays a tight game, with close distance, short lunges, simple handwork — and great tempo. Gruchala favors long, unfolding attacks finished with a flying lunge. Their bout in the 2003 World Championships was also characterized by a new style of “revolving” footwork, which both maintained distance and promoted constant movement. It will be interesting to see what new tactics Gruchala has put in place for her meeting with Vezzali.
Should Gruchala be victorious over Vezzali, she may meet Trillini in the Gold Medal match. Based on their St. Petersburg World Cup match, Trillini can frustrate Gruchala as much as Vezzali can. We’d like to see a Gruchala win, but our prediction has to be…
Predictions
Vezzali for Gold, Trillini for Silver. Gruchala for Bronze.