Corble Cup clarifies Women’s Saber Olympic Qualification picture

Over the past few weeks the qualification picture for the 2012 Olympic Games has become clearer for Women’s Saber.

With her 2nd place finish in London, Sophia Velikaia (RUS) tied Mariel Zagunis in the Adjusted Olympic Rankings (AOR) and pulled ahead for the #1 FIE World Ranking.  The two main competitions between the Russian and American fencers seem to have been decided as well with Julia Gavrilova (RUS) and Dagmara Wozniak (USA) on track to qualify for the London Olympics.

For women’s saber, the top 12 fencers in the AOR qualify outright, followed by the top 2 fencers from each Olympic Zone (Europe, Americas, Africa, Asia).  Because this event will be only an individual event, a maximum of 2 fencers from each country may qualify for the Games, regardless of ranking.  [Full ranking process detailed here.]

That rule is particularly hurtful to the Russian contingent.  The Russians sport 3 fencers all in the top-5 of the current FIE World Rankings, but 5th ranked Ekaterina Diatchenko (RUS) sits 30 points behind Julia Gavrilova (RUS) for the 2nd Russian qualifying spot and is effectively eliminated from the Games.

Dagmara Wozniak is one of 3 US women ranked in the top-16 and she used a top-8 finish to surge to a 19 point lead over her closest US rival, Daria Schneider (USA).  Ibtihaj Muhammad (USA) made up some ground on Schneider, but sits as the 4th ranked American where only 2 will qualify for the Olympics.

Within the top-12 fencers, there was a bit of movement, but nobody jumped into or out of the top-12 following London.  The rankings are all solidifying now and barring a fluke performance, most of the places seem to be set.

With two world cup events remaining (Antalya, TUR and Moscow, RUS) the battles move out to the fringe with the zonal spots on the line.

For Europe, Bogna Jozwiak (POL) has edged ahead of Leonore Perrus (FRA) by 3 points for the 2nd European qualifying spot and Olga Zhovnir (UKR) sits in the Euro-1 slot.

The Asian spots are occupied by Ra Jin Lee (KOR) at 58 points, followed by Seira Nakayama (JPN) with 46 points.  Last out for Asia is Keum Hwa Kim (KOR) who sits at 55 points, but with two Koreans already qualified, she would sit out.  If Kim finishes a round ahead of Lee in the final two world cups, their places would swap.

For the American zone, Dagmara Wozniak’s top-8 finish secured a zonal spot, which then skips over the rest of the Americans before falling to Sandra Sassine (CAN).  Sassine’s place is not secure, however, as Maria Belen Perez Maurice (ARG) is only 3 points behind.

Finally, we head down to the African spots which are occupied by Tunisia’s Amira Ben Chaabane (35th World Rank) and Salma Zien (EGY, 50th WR).  Their rankings are based solely off of points earned at the African zonal championships.

There are only two world cup events left that count for Olympic qualification.  After that, the countries with no fencer qualified will send one fencer to a zonal qualification tournament to fill out the last spots for the Games.

Qualification Standings- Women’s Individual Saber (2/27/2012)

You can view the full spreadsheet online here.